With a near-constant wave of global supply chain disruption in 2026, the fact that Britain imports nearly half (48%) of its food should be considered a growing national concern. What’s more, supermarkets and food distributors largely operate via “just-in-time” logistics, where products arrive when needed for production or sale to avoid waste. Put simply, the UK has little room to absorb more serious disruption.

For example, droughts are now hitting farmers regularly, compromising domestic food production and reinforcing the need to treat food scarcity as a matter of immediate national security. Plus, the heatwave across Europe in June is estimated to have led to the loss of more than €2.1 billion in grain crop value, the latest in a series of reminders this year of the significant pressure on food supply.

While businesses can’t predict geopolitical disruption, the closure of major shipping lanes, or extreme weather, they can take steps to make their supply chains more resilient against these shocks.

The UK can’t turn a blind eye anymore

The UK has already experienced multiple heatwaves this summer, and farmers have warned that food shortages are a very real possibility this year. Food scarcity isn’t just a future concern for the UK; the pressures behind it are being felt, and this year has revealed the real threat they create to our national supplies.

Even though Yorkshire is in the North of England, pressure is still intense. Yorkshire Water remains at drought level 1,and reservoir levels continue to decline, showing just how little rain we’ve had this summer and why crops are suffering across the country.

SCALA’s recent supply chain resilience report revealed that just 33% of businesses have implemented strategies across their supply chains to allow them to respond adequately to disruption. This preparedness gap is particularly concerning given the UK’s reliance on food imports and its exposure to disruption across global supply chains.

What might a crisis look like?

A government report this year said that the combination of climate change, habitat loss and geopolitical instability means that Britain’s food security could be “at strategic risk of catastrophic failure” by 2030.

But what does this mean in practice and why is it time to get serious now about preventative action?

Future shortages could lead to sudden and severe price rises, placing further pressure on households already dealing with sustained increases to the cost of living.
A future crisis could also result in reduced food choices and unpredictable availability on supermarket shelves if producers and retailers struggle to maintain particular ingredients or food products. Fresh and chilled products would be at highest risk because shops have less ability to hold additional stock when preparing for shortages.

Beyond the immediate impact on the food and beverage industry and its consumers, a crisis of this kind could erode public trust in the government and its policies, particularly when many are already warning of the UK’s over-reliance on imported food.

Strengthening food supply chains

This year should be a wake-up call for British businesses, which should be scrutinising whether their food supply chains are equipped to deal with the global shocks and extreme weather of the future. While it’s impossible to predict when these shocks will arrive, business leaders can take steps to ensure they're prepared when they inevitably do.

This should include mapping out which foods and ingredients are most vulnerable to shocks, and whether transportation routes could be changed quickly if needed. Businesses should also be proactive in building relationships with different suppliers that will allow them to respond quickly if standard suppliers are hit.

Having alternative suppliers isn’t a one-stop solution. Businesses must assess whether alternative partners can increase capacity at short notice and make sure that quality, labelling and compliance aren’t compromised if and when disruption occurs. Procurement, production, logistics and commercial teams should align on which products and ingredients could be switched temporarily to maintain essential supplies.

Food scarcity is rightfully a concern that is now attracting national attention, and this year has proven that the logistics of the British food industry leave us particularly vulnerable. Businesses can’t control global disruption, but they can scrutinise their existing supply chains to better equip themselves for future incidents. Diligence and proactive planning now can help limit shortages, control prices and protect consumers in the face of domestic and international food disruptions.