YouGov/Cebr: Consumer Confidence Dips For The Sixth Month In A Row

New analysis from YouGov and the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr) reveals that household finance measures saw a slight recovery in May 2022 – but falling home value metrics have dragged the overall consumer confidence index down for the sixth month in a row.

YouGov collects consumer confidence data every day, conducting over 6,000 interviews a month. Respondents answer questions about household finances, property prices, job security, and business activity, both over the past 30 days and looking ahead to the next 12 months.

Following months of decline, members of the public were more positive about their finances in May 2022. Retrospective measures (which cover the past 30 days) saw an increase of 2.1 points, rising to 58.8, while outlook (covering the next 12 months) jumped by 3.9 points to 52.2. However, any improvements to these metrics have to be viewed in the context of the year’s record-breaking lows.

If there is good news for households this month, it is accompanied by rather worse news for homeowners. Confidence in short-term house prices fell to 129.7 (-3.8), while outlook fell to 130.9 (-6.5). Contrasting with Britons’ perceptions of their household finances this month, it’s a case of two healthy measures enduring their first proper setback in some time – while remaining firmly positive overall.

Among workers, business activity metrics remained broadly stagnant – inching up to 112.3 (+0.4) for the past 30 days and 121.7 (+0.6) for the next 12 months – while the job security index saw minor losses: decreasing to 93.1 for the short-term measure (-1.0) and -0.8 for the year ahead (119.4).

Emma McInnes, Global Head of Financial Services at YouGov:

“While there are signs of recovery in both retrospective and future household finance measures, it is important to recognise that this comes against the backdrop of both measures having hit record lows in April. And, these small improvements have been offset by falling scores across four measures for house value and job security which, alongside stagnant scores for business activity, have resulted in a further downturn in our overall Consumer Confidence Index, which is now in its sixth consecutive month of decline.”

Kay Neufeld, Head of Forecasting and Thought Leadership at Cebr:

“The YouGov/Cebr Consumer Confidence Index continued its downward spiral in May, recording a sixth consecutive drop. Looking for a silver lining, we note that at least the pace of falls has started to slow, with the 0.6-point contraction being the mildest since December 2021. Importantly, households’ perceptions regarding their financial situation have started to improve this month, albeit from a low base. The announcement of the Chancellor’s £15 billion cost-of-living support package will have gone some way to alleviating the most pressing concerns. Nevertheless, the fact that the four measures covering job security and home values have all fallen back suggests that the slowdown is starting to affect other sectors of the economy, with the housing market in particular looking set for a correction in the face of rising borrowing costs.”