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12:00 AM 15th October 2024
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Cebr And YouGov: Optimism Over Future Household Finances Deteriorates Amidst Stagnation In Confidence

 


Image by Steve Buissinne from Pixabay
Image by Steve Buissinne from Pixabay
The latest data from the YouGov and the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr) consumer confidence survey found that Briton’s views of their household finances over the next 12 months became gloomier, with the forward-looking measure deteriorating from 97.4 to 95.2 (-2.2). Any score greater than 100 indicates positive sentiment, less than 100 indicates negative sentiment.

Consumer confidence saw little movement in September 2024. While certain measures did see improvement and deterioration, the effect on the overall index – which moved from 110.9 to 111.0 – was relatively small.

The mixed sentiment extended into job security. Workers felt safer in their roles over the past month (+1.2), but – with outlook falling from 118.4 to 115.1 (-3.3) – they were decidedly more pessimistic about the future.

YouGov collects consumer confidence data every day, conducting over 6,000 interviews a month. Respondents answer questions about household finances, property prices, job security and business activity, capturing their views on the past 30 days and on their forecast for the coming 12 months.



People were happier about the state of their workplaces. Business activity measures for the past 30 days jumped from 109.4 to 112.7 (+3.3), while the outlook for the next 12 months increased from 125.6 to 126.2 (+0.6).

Another area of improvement – albeit small improvement – was house prices. With scores rising from 115.5 to 116.1 (+0.6), UK homeowners were more likely to believe the value of their properties went up over the past 30 days. The mood for the next 12 months was also (very) slightly more optimistic: scores rose from 131.2 to 131.4 (+0.2).

Beneath the broadly unchanged Confidence Index lie some areas of concern. One area of note is job security, with consumers becoming less confident in their future labour market prospects. This broadly aligns with wider data, notably the ongoing slowdown in the rate of earnings growth and fall in the number of vacancies. Forward-looking confidence over household finances also took a hit this month, despite interest rates now starting to fall amidst lower inflation.

Looking ahead, policy announcements at the upcoming Budget will provide a clearer indication of the new Government’s approach towards the economy and will likely impact the Confidence Index in the months ahead.
Sam Miley, Managing Economist and Forecasting Lead at Cebr